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  1. Which opportunities does financial scouting bring? When it comes to financial investments, being ahead of the others is a key to success. The drivers influencing the price are constantly changing. This makes it necessary to always monitor both micro and macroeconomics and act fast. As Leo Szilard, a famous scientist, once said, 'In order to succeed it is not necessary to be much cleverer than other people. All you have to do is be one day ahead of them.' This is the best phrase to describe financial scouting, the new service that enables faster trading and gains more profit. Want to know more about financial scouting? - Visit Libertex.com!
  2. In Europe, All Eyes Are On the G20 Summit European traders will keep close track of the G20 summit. They wait for potential important statements to be made regarding the global economic outlook, and for agreements to be reached to address the US-China trade war. On the downside, investors are wary now that the US leader has promised to unleash tariffs on European car imports, so Europe’s carmakers feel downbeat. Meanwhile, on the positive side, traders’ worries about possible fourth rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve were somewhat soothed. The Fed’s chairman Jerome H. Powell made a market-invigorating statement saying that the US economic outlook remains strong, but the Fed might consider a pause in its interest rate hikes next year to assess the impact of its credit tightening. Mr. Powell said the benchmark interest rate was “just below” the neutral level. Financial scouts note that the two continuing main concerns for Europe are Brexit divorce conditions and the Italy budget standoff. According to new official figures, withdrawal from the European Union under the government’s plans could cut the UK’s GDP by up to 3.9% over the next 15 years, but leaving without a deal could deliver a 9.3% hit to GDP over the same period, says the analysis produced by departments across Whitehall. Oil will be the focus of interest for the European investors as well, as they hope that the oil prices might be bolstered if OPEC+ members decide to cut the supply to curb the current glut in their meetings from December 5 to December 7. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  3. What is financial scouting? When referring to the term financial scouting, people mean the searchin for good trading opportunities in the financial market, done both quickly and professionally. A financial scout or a financial scouting service sets out to find investment opportunities that fully meet a trader's needs, this being their primary task. Such investment opportunities may be both high- and low risk. Want to know what is the difference between financial scouting and investment advisory? - Visit https://libertex.com/blog/what-financial-scouting
  4. Europe’s Markets to Remain under Pressure, As Investors Await the G20 Summit and OPEC+ Meeting Outcomes Europe’s investors’ eyes are on the G20 summit to be held from November 30 to December 1 in Argentina. Investors expect that some new arrangements might be worked out by the US and China that would hopefully help to break the trade impasse. The positive expectations are driven by the US President Donald Trump’s saying earlier that he intends to discuss the situation with the Chinese leader on the sidelines. Another main focus for European traders is Brexit terms that remain a front-burner concern even though key agreements seem to have been reached between Brussels and London. Meanwhile, new setbacks might still occur. Previously, the sticking point had been a rift over Gibraltar, as Spain had contested the disputed territory’s status and threatened to veto the Brexit withdrawal agreement. But eventually the UK and Spain have struck a Brexit deal over Gibraltar. On the positive side, the European indices might be underpinned by the euro weakening versus the US dollar, as investors become less attracted to high-risk assets including high-risk forex investments and now tend to prefer buying robust currencies like US dollar. And on the negative front, oil prices continue to face pressures even though some OPEC members, primarily Saudi Arabia, have been sending out signals that the decision to curb oil production might be taken in the OPEC+ key meetings to be held in Vienna from December 5 to December 7. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  5. Europe’s Markets to Remain Volatile as Investors Wait for the Italy Budget Impasse to be Resolved Europe’s stock markets are awaiting the outcome of the Italy budget crisis. Most likely, we’ll have some certainty about what really happens in early December. Investors are somewhat worried about the situation, with market prices going both ways. The Eurogroup is scheduled to meet on December 3 and will most likely discuss the issues faced. Italy’s government are hopeful that there will have a constructive dialogue with European Commission Head Jean-Claude Juncker. Still, investors fear that Italy may be disciplined with EDP measures to be imposed against it. Meanwhile, traders never stopped watching the US-China trade war developments, with a U.S. government report appeared that accuses Beijing of stepping up efforts to steal technology via network hacks. Also, investors are awaiting the outcomes of the upcoming meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at G20 Argentina 2018 summit in December. If traders understand that trade risks still remain high after the summit, they might reasonably have reason to doubt that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again as planned in its next meeting. So far, the Fed predicts the fourth hike before the year ends, likely coming in December. Global oil markets are dominated by uncertainty, too, with the oil prices plummeting and then soaring again. Investors are awaiting the OPEC+ meeting in early December with the oil production cut likely to be endorsed to bolster prices. In the medium term, traders are wary that the oil market supply might be too high. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  6. Europe’s Markets Anxiously Waiting for the Brexit News and Italy’s Budget Developments European investors are waiting hopefully for further progress in the US-China trade dispute to happen after some positive developments have occurred along this avenue. On the negative side, markets will continue to face pressures due to Brexit uncertainties and Italy’s next-year’s budget issues that have still not been fully resolved, financial scouts note. Meanwhile, investors keep hoping that US won’t slap new tariffs on the Chinese imports. China says it doesn’t want to fight a trade war with the United States, while the US pledges Washington “will not change course” on trade policy “until China changes its ways.” European traders are also anxious to know what new Brexit moves are actually to be made now that London and Brussels have worked out a draft divorce deal, as the UK prepares to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. After the draft deal has been pulled off, it needs the approval of UK MPs and each EU member state. And if it has not been approved before the Brexit day, ‘hard’ Brexit might be brought about with negative outcomes to possibly hurt the UK and the remaining EU members. Yet another source of concern for investors is Italy’s 2019 budget turmoil with European Commission’s report on Italy's debt to be issued on upcoming Wednesday, November 21. Traders are wary that disciplinary procedure might be brought against Italy, if the country’s draft budget challenges its tax and budget commitments to the EU. In France, the “yellow vest” protests against fuel price rises still continue. And though President Emmanuel Macron says he “hears the anger”, he seems to be set to keep taxing fuel. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  7. EU Markets Cheered by the Draft Brexit Deal, But Investors Are Wary About Italy’s Economic Challenges Europe’s markets are likely to be headed south as the US-China trade relationship has been stubbornly dominated by uncertainty, and also due to Italy’s economy quandary and overwhelmingly pessimistic oil market sentiment. On the plus side, the European markets will be bolstered by the news that the EU divorce deal has been eventually reached. Despite the array of pessimistic forecasts, London and Brussels have successfully struck the Brexit withdrawal deal on all items discussed including the most touchy and contentious ones. As far as the US-China trade spat is concerned, there has not been a hint of certainty about how and when it will be resolved. Still, investors are hopeful that the two opposing countries will get back to the negotiation table soon. Meanwhile, Italy’s budget deficit has remained the front-burner concern for Europe, as Italy refuses to revise its draft budget for the next year including the country’s GDP growth rates and the budget deficit figures. Amid the budget turmoil, the Italian treasuries and government bonds yields are growing at an accelerated pace, which might trigger a full-blown debt crisis, as yet today, Italy is Europe’s second largest debtor after Greece. In the French market, investors were upset by the US President Donald Trump’s bashing concerning France’s high wine import taxes curbing US wine sales in the country. Financial scouts say that the markets are anxious globally. Oil prices change their direction every time fresh news appears, but in the medium run, traders fear that the oil supply may be excessive. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  8. Europe Worries About Oil and Waits for the U.S. Federal Reserve System to Decide on the Rates European stock markets are feeling optimistic after the results of the U.S. midterm Congressional elections were announced. However, some uncertainties remain due to the Brexit terms and ambiguous trends in the global oil prices. In the course of the U.S. midterm Congressional elections Democrats won the House of Representatives, but Republicans still control the Senate. The U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with certain difficulties in implementing his initiatives, especially the trade ones. Thus, there is reason to hope that he will not be able to bring up new restrictions, particularly, ones affecting the importing of the European goods. Financial scouts are certain that the global investors will direct their attention to the December meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, at which it can decide on increasing the rate. Forecasts expect it to be raised to 2.25-2.5%. Investors also await news of the Brexit terms. Uncertainties of the global oil market are a cause for unrest in Europe as well. New U.S. sanctions against Iran introduced on November 5, stipulate some countries to be temporarily exempt. Italy and Greece made it to the list of those exceptions in Europe. However, the list turned out to be quite a complicated matter for the European investors. For example, Spain has been purchasing Iranian oil as well, but it failed to be included, while Italy was. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  9. Financial Scouts Say Europe’s Traders Will Continue To Follow News About The US-China Trade Conflict, Brexit Europe’s stock markets will continue to face some pressure due to the US-China standoff resolution uncertainty. EU traders will also keep track of the Brexit news and global oil market developments. Trade differences between the US and China will remain the focus of interest for European investors. The news regarding the trade spat are quite contradictory, with the markets propelled upwards and downwards interchangeably every time a fresh piece of trade war news appears. However, some progress has been seen here, so traders are awaiting positive updates on this arena. Brexit news looks similarly ambiguous. London and Brussels have little time ahead to agree, which fuels traders’ concerns, as they apprehend that a ‘hard’ Brexit will happen. Meanwhile, some headway has been seen here, too. Specifically, concessions have reportedly been secured from Brussels to keep the whole of the UK in a customs union in the wake of Britain’s withdrawal. Another market experiencing a quite high volatility is the oil market, with the volatility driver being Washington’s new anti-Iran sanctions that came into force on November 5. Traders originally expected that new sanctions might drive oil supply shortage in the global market due to the apprehended Iranian oil exports cut. But in light of waivers given to some countries the oil undersupply seems unlikely to happen. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  10. European Markets To Lag Behind the Rest of the Markets Globally On Unresolved EU Issues In the nearest term, Europe’s markets are likely to be rather downbeat versus key global markets. The European indices might show negative dynamics after the previous period of their modest growth despite the mainly pessimistic environment. As for the American and Asian investors, they are substantially optimistic mainly due to the robust financial figures reported by the major US companies. Furthermore, traders are now expecting that the US-China trade war might finally be resolved, as the US President Donald Trump said a “great deal” with China was around the corner. Meanwhile, the European markets are more apt to be driven by the EU news with investors watching things like what will happen next regarding Brexit. Financial scouts say that even though no deal has been reached yet, some progress seems to be seen. The good news is that the British bank stocks’ performance might be bolstered by the fact that the UK banks will be able to operate soundly in the EU after Brexit happens. On the negative side, Europe’s markets, together with any of the markets globally, will face pressures from the falling oil prices. Once there has been no reason to expect a possible oil supply shortage due to the Iranian oil exports cut on the back of the US sanctions, the oil prices were headed dramatically south, since traders are now confident that Libya and Saudi Arabia can supply enough oil to keep the market satiated. Thus, there are no fears anymore that the market might run short of oil. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  11. European Markets to Be Volatile Amid the Massive Uneasiness European markets will continue to be volatile, following suit of the mixed dynamics seen by the stock exchanges globally. But then, Europe’s markets have recently been much more moderately downbeat than the rest of the world’s markets. For the EU markets, a key driver fuelling the uneasiness and insecurity is the US-China trade war outlook and how China’s economy’s prospects might be affected. As China’s industrial profits decreased after nine months of the current year, traders expect the country to face more economic challenges that might be triggered by the still unresolved US-China trade conflict. Though the People’s Bank of China has pledged policy support to the national economy that will be offered should the country be hurt by the challenges, investors understand that this would only allow the country’s to keep its economic performances at their current level. Financial scouts note that investors are waiting for the S&P’s decision regarding Italy’s credit rating amid its budget standoff with Brussels. The country’s long-term credit rating by S&P has so far remained untouched at ‘BBB’. But now investors expect that Italy’s credit rating outlook might be downgraded to ‘negative’. Yet another source of uncertainty is the global oil markets with its unstable prices showing mixed trade. What attracted the traders’ interest was that Iran’s top government officials say that the country’s oil exports will not fall below 1 million barrels per day on the looming new US sanctions. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  12. Europe’s Markets to be Dominated by Pessimism, as Global Exchanges Are Battered By the Negative Developments The financial scouts expect that in the days to come, Europe’s markets will continue to be dominated by the surge of negative developments that has lately overpowered the major global markets. The sell-off hitting the EU markets was also fuelled by the weakening oil prices. Lately, the bulk of the negative market news has come from the US, whose weak statistics and the looming new interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve make investors feel pessimistic. Moreover, the Fed has said that the US companies fear that they may be hurt by new Chinese import tariffs. The businesses now have to deal with higher commodity prices driven by the tariff rises, and so they plan to charge higher prices to their customers. Another point of interest, according to the financial scouts, is that traders are awaiting the Italy’s budget crisis outcomes. Previously, the European Commission rejected the country’s draft budget and asked Rome to submit a new one within three weeks. Yet another negative driver is that investors are wary that a worst case Brexit scenario will play out. So it is likely that the post-Brexit transition period will be extended. And finally, a major source of pressures for the EU markets is the global oil market uncertainties, with the investors too often overwhelmed by the sudden price hikes and slumps. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  13. The European Markets Might Recover Somewhat Amid Globally Stronger Investment Environment In the offing, the European stock indices might continue their growth, as the investment climate has become better globally. Specifically, the financial scouts watching the European financial markets say that the traders feel upbeat because they anticipate the US-China trade war to be successfully resolved. Investors are now awaiting the meeting between the US President Donald Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping that is planned to be held on October 29. The way how the China’s stock exchanges reacted was driven by the statements made by the governor of the People’s Bank of China (Xi Jinping). Should the meeting eventually happen, it will become the first rendezvous of the two leaders since the trade spat had exploded. Furthermore, European investors expect that the Chinese government will offer support to the country’s business sector that is being hurt by the US-China trade contradictions. The governor of the People’s Bank of China has earlier announced to investors that they may remain appeased, as the regulator will undermine the country’s economy amid the current challenges. On the negative side, the financial scouts are still wary about the Italy’s economic outlook, as the budget crisis faced has never been resolved. The European Commission is concerned about three things regarding the country’s budget, that is, how the national debt, the budget deficit and the economic growth will be managed. According to the EU regulations, a member country’s budget deficit may not be greater than 3% of its GDP. Meanwhile, Italy is the EU’s largest debtor after Greece with its debt-to-GDP ratio at 131.8%. Another front burner issue for the EU is Brexit. Investors are hopeful that the UK will finally be able to reach the deal. Brussels and London need to work out the final Brexit agreement in November at latest so that the deal could go through the ratification process and become effective by the Brexit cutoff date. Should the withdrawal deal fail to be reached, this is likely to trigger the ‘hard’ Brexit. And that’s what investors actually apprehend. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  14. The EU Majors’ Financial Figures, Italy Budget Crisis and Brexit Will Remain the European Stock Market Highlights In the days to come, the EU stock market traders will be on the watch for the EU’s major’s financial figures that are currently being announced as well as for the Italy budget crisis updates and Brexit news. Investors expect that Brussels will probably ask Italy to revise the country’s budget for 2019 and will reject the current version of the budget with the deficit set at 2.4% of GDP. In the meantime, another focus of interest for traders is Brexit. With the looming Brexit deadline of March 29, 2019, the UK needs to strike the withdrawal deal in November at latest so that it could go through the ratification process in time and take effect by the Brexit date. The no-deal Brexit is to be the ‘hard’ Brexit feared by investors. On the positive side, the European market majors have recently announced their financial results that appear to be quite strong, which will underpin the EU stocks dynamics in the offing. A negative thing is that the EU market-watchers apprehend a new rate hike by the US Federal Reserve that seems to believe that it makes sense to further raise rates amid the country’s strong economy according to the Fed minutes from its September meeting. And again on the negative side, the US-China trade war tensions have never eased. Though the US Department of the Treasury has so far declined to label China as currency manipulator, the Treasury report says that China, along with five other countries, has currency practices that require close attention. As the US-China trade quandary remains unresolved, the EU investors are wary that European car imports into the Unites States might be hit with higher tariffs. Meanwhile, as the car tariff hike threat appears to be less acute, the EU’s new light motor vehicles sales grew by 2.5% with 11.95 million new cars sold from January to September 2018. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
  15. The EU Stocks to be Headed South on Trade Spats and Political Collisions European stocks are now under a certain pressure, as investors are wary about further European Central Bank’s monetary policy developments. Traders expect that as Eurozone inflation rises, the regulator will continue to stick to the harsh monetary policy and will further raise rates. Investors share the fears of even greater global trade protectionism and financial market volatility that have been raised by ECB President Mario Draghi. Moreover, they are upset that the Quantitative Easing monthly net asset purchase will be halved to 15 billion euros in October and will be ended altogether by December 2018. Another driver fuelling investors’ concerns is the lack of certainty about the US-China trade war prospects along with tenser relationship between Europe and Saudi Arabia. UK officials have begun drawing up a list of Saudi security and government officials who could potentially come under sanctions connected with the disappearance of famous dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who has been missing since he entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The US may come forward with similar sanctions. If this happens, Saudi Arabia global oil supply will be curbed dramatically, and so the oil prices will rise again. Inside the Eurozone, investors never stopped being worried about the still unresolved and very important Brexit outcomes and conditions including how the Irish border fits into any Brexit deal. Meanwhile, London and Brussels have little time left to agree a workable Brexit, as they need to reach the withdrawal agreement in November at latest. If they fail, the agreement will not be able to go through the ratification process by March 29, 2019 (the Brexit deadline), which could trigger the ‘hard’ Brexit that would cut off most UK ties with the EU including the agreements, arrangements and regulations it currently observes as a European Union member and cause uncertainty about the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU. Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst