Jump to content


  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by LeroyJohn

  1. GBP/USD is pressured as Brexit talks remain stuck. Carney's comments and upbeat data fail to help as the focus shifts to the US. The technical picture is bearish for cable. GBP/USD is trading in the lower part of the 1.3100 handle. The primary driver of the most recent slide stems from talks in Brussels. UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox and Brexit Secretary Steven Barclay met Chief EU Negotiator Michel Barnier. After three hours of negotiations, the media was told that there was no breakthrough. Expectations were low from the outset. The UK wants legally-binding changes to the Irish Backstop, setting a time-limit or an exit mechanism in the Withdrawal Agreement (WA), while the EU is only ready to offer clarifications and reassurances to the Political Declaration (PD). UK PM Theresa May plans to bring a revised accord to Parliament on March 12th, and the new agreement may be all too similar to the old one. Will she tell the House of Commons that she has no new deal? Everything is possible as her Conservative Party is torn between the hard-Brexiteers and Remain supporters. The news from the Belgian capital overshadowed positive developments. Markit's Services PMI came out at 51.3, better than expected and reflecting growth, albeit meager. Also, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that the path of rate hikes might be higher than markets expect. It is important to note that the BOE would like to raise rates given the current economic situation, but Brexit uncertainty paralyzes everything, including the Bank. Looking ahead Further developments on the Brexit front will be eyed. Pound/dollar is down also due to US Dollar strength which originates from robust data. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came out at 59.7 points, significantly above expectations and pointing to a rebound in America's largest sector in February. Also, New Home Sales stood at 621K annualized in December, allaying fears of a substantial downturn in the housing sector, concerns coming from other weak data from the industry. Apart from Brexit, a critical US figure stands out today. The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls is projected to show a more moderate increase in private sector job growth in February after a leap of 213K in January. The figure serves as a crucial indicator ahead of Friday's all-important official Non-Farm Payrolls report. GBP/USD Technical Analysis GBP/USD dropped below the 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart and Momentum is decidedly to the downside. Both are bearish signs. The Relative Strength Index is still above 30, thus not exposing oversold conditions. Support is at the round number of 1.3100 which supported the pair on Tuesday. The next level to watch is 1.3050 which provided some support in late February and meets the rising 200 SMA. 1.3010 cushioned cable in mid-February and is followed by the swing low fo 1.2970 seen later last month. 1.3150 supported the pair on Tuesday and is fought over at the time of writing. 1.3200 was the high point on Tuesday and also a round number. 1.3270 was the peak on Mondy, before GBP/USD closed the gap. 1.3350 is the high point recorded late in February. Stay informed about forex rates
  2. USD/CAD fell on the weakness of the greenback, fueled by the Fed. Inflation data stands out as oil stabilizes. The technical picture is bearish for the pair. This was the week: BOC maintains the hawkish bias The Bank of Canada decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.75% as broadly expected. In the accompanying statement and press conference, the Ottawa-based institution conveyed a message of patience but also of optimism. 2018 was an "off year" due to NAFTA uncertainty and the fall in oil prices, but employment looks strong. The BOC is still expected to raise rates later this year. The loonie reacted positively to the news. Canadian data was mixed with a beat in the Ivey PMI and Housing Starts but a miss on trade data. In the US, the Fed had its message of patience, via the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Also, FOMC member Raphael Bostic went further and opened the door to a rate cut. Other officials also voiced more dovish thoughts than beforehand. The US Dollar lost ground across the board. The C$ also enjoyed the ongoing recovery in oil prices. The Fed-inspired recovery in stocks prices also pushed petrol prices higher. Also, the supply-demand pendulum is more balanced. Canadian events: Inflation awaits on Friday, watch oil The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls report on Thursday will shed more light on the Canadian labor market, but the focus is on Friday's inflation report. Headline, Consumer Price Index, stood at 1.7% YoY in November, off the highs as energy prices slipped. Core CPI saw smaller moves and stood at 1.5% in the previous month. The BOC watches the data carefully. The report is not published alongside the retail sales one, giving inflation data its time in the spotlight. Here is the Canadian calendar for this week: US events: Retail sales stand out After a US holiday on Monday, the Producer Price Index stands out on Tuesday, with no major changes expected. The economic highlight of the week is on Wednesday with Retail Sales. After the Control Group jumped by 0.9% in November, the month including Black Friday, December's sales will be of interest. Did Americans continue shopping big-time around Christmas? The second significant highlight is the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index by the University of Michigan. The indicator is just below the cycle highs and stood at 98.3 points in December. We may see a drop now. US politics may play a more substantial role in markets. The longer the government shutdown continues, the higher the economic damage. Some employees will not receive paychecks, and this could be damaging for the economy. Headlines from Washington may have an impact on the US Dollar. Here are the critical American events from the forex calendar: USD/CAD Technical Analysis Dollar/CAD continues its downtrend after breaking below the long-term uptrend support line. It lost the 50-day Simple Moving Average and suffers from downward Momentum. All in all, the picture is bearish. 1.3185 was the low point earlier in the week. It is followed by 1.3160 that provided support in early December and the next line is close by 1.3135 that cushioned the pair in early November. Further down, 1.3050 was a low point in November. A bit further down the road, 1.3050 provided support twice in November. 1.2960 was a swing high in October and so was 1.2920. 1.3250 capped the pair in recent days and was also a swing low in early December. 1.3320 provided support in mid-December and is closely followed by 1.3360 which was a peak in late November. 1.3420 was a swing low during the dying days of 2018. 1.3570 provided support to $/CAD when it traded on high ground. USD/CAD Sentiment While oil prices may have run their course, the ongoing hawkish bias by the BOC contrasts the concerted effort to appease markets by the Fed. USD/CAD has room to the downside.
  3. ETH/USD is rangebound close to the recent lows. The downside is the path of least resistance ETH/USD is hovering around $86.00, off the Asian low of $84.95. The third largest cryptocurrency has been relatively stable during recent trading hours as the market grope for support after a long-term decline. Ethereum has lost over 50% of its value in a recent month due to a combination of technical and speculative factors including the upcoming Constantinopole update and massive ETH selling by ICO projects. Looking technically, ETH/USD is close to an uncharted territory. The only viable support is created by the previous week low at $82.15. Once it is broken, there'll be little to stop the price on the way down to $75.00 (Pivot Point 1 month Support 1) and to the long-term congestion zone at $60.00 that served as a jumping-off ground for the price in April 2017. Immediately above the current price, the resistance area is created by the confluence of technical indicators, which include 38.2% Fibo retracement Daily and SMA5, 4-hour. Once it is cleared the recovery may be extended towards $90.00 guarded by SMA10 4-hour, Bollinger Band 4-hour Middle and 61.8% Fibo retracement daily. Another strong resistance lies on approach to $psycholigical $91.00 with SMA200 1-hour, SMA50 4-hour and 23.6% Fibo retracement weekly. However, the ultimate barrier is seen above $97.20. It is created by 23.6% Fibo retracement weekly and Pivot Point one-day Resistance 3. This area separates us from pivotal $100.00 and represents the upper border of a mid-term channel. ETH/USD 1D Source: FXStreet
  4. BTC/USD is in a key technical scenario. The dominant pessimism is likely to turn upside down. ETH/USD rejects leadership again and the market languishes. The weekend is approaching without significant changes among the main protagonists of the Crypto board. I am reviewing the dominant emotional state in social networks and pessimism rules. The gloom sets an optimal atmosphere for a change in the direction of the market. Extreme pessimism is the antagonist of the blind euphoria we saw exactly a year ago. This melancholy crushes the psyche of the HOLDers, but should not do so in the minds of traders. For a trader, the direction of the market must be secondary. This extremely depressing environment covers with anxiety the ability to look at the market and make the right decisions. The task of an analyst is to provide a clear picture of the current scenario that will help investors in the process of managing their portfolios. Seeking to offer this service, today I will analyze the graphs of Bitcoin, Ripple and Ethereum represented in logarithmic scale. This type of representation helps analyze very volatile assets with wide ranges. BTC/USD Daily Logarithmic Chart BTC/USD trades at the price level of $3,362. The price has reached the trend line that governs the movement of the BTC/USD for years, and therefore we are facing a decisive moment. We can see if we review the graph. In recent years the price of Bitcoin has moved below the line on several occasions, to return to rising above it again. Below the current price, the first support level is at $3,275 (price congestion support and very long-term uptrend line). The second support level is at $3,177 (long-term bearish trend line). The third support level is at $2,890(price congestion support). Regarding this third level of support, I find it very improbable that it can be reached in the next few days because it would take an extraordinary sales force to break the two intermediate supports. Above the current price, the first serious resistance level is at $3,925 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance level is at $4,390 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at $4,693 (EMA50), a critical level from which we could start to speak of an upward turn. The MACD in the daily range shows a perfect profile for an upward movement. After moving to extreme harmful levels, it draws a bullish divergence and crosses over to the upside. It is bullish according to the manuals, but the current situation can generate even more extreme movements. The DMI in the daily range shows the bulls increasing their activity since the arrival of the price to the current zone. It is, therefore, a shopping area. The bears, on the opposite, should think the same as they have been decreasing their strength to approach the current levels. XRP/USD Daily Logarithmic Chart XRP/USD is currently trading at the $0.306 price level after failing to conquer the first resistance level at $0.32 yesterday. After this failed attempt the XRP/USD came down for support at the $0.30 price level and found it. These are now the warning levels for this pair. Above the current price, the first resistance level is $0.32 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance level is at $0.345 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at $0.370 (price congestion resistance) and is very important if the XRP/USD beats it, which would allow an attack on the EMA50 at $0.394 and enter into a neutral scenario at least. Below the current price, the first support level is $0.30 (price congestion support). The second support level is $0.271 (price congestion support). The third level of support is at $0.258 (price congestion support and annual lows). The MACD in the daily range shows such a perfect bullish cross profile that I doubt it can be real and work. It is likely that we will see a downward rejection of this indicator in the next few days. The DMI in the daily range shows us how neither bulls nor bears have changed their expectations when reaching this price range. The ADX shows a loss of trend strength in the last few sessions. ETH/USD Daily Logarithmic Chart The ETH/USD trades at the $89.3 price level. Yesterday it tried to breach the $95 resistance level but failed. The Ethereum has all the attention on it for his condition of the leader in bull markets and his current weakness worries analysts. Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $95 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance level is at $125 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at $144 (EMA50). Below the current price, the first support level is at $80.5 (price congestion support). The second support level is at $69 (price congestion support). The third level of support is at $53 (price congestion support). The MACD in the daily range also shows a bullish manual structure. I am amazed at the clarity of the structure when compared to the perceived pessimistic environment. The DMI in the daily range shows bulls unconvinced of a possible upward change in the price path. The bears, for their part, have decreased a little in intensity but remain at very high levels. To sum up the situation, if you have reached these levels without being pushed to sell, there is nothing right now to tell us that this market is irrecoverable — nothing to give us reasonable cause. If you are thinking about buying, the levels are adequate not for the price but because the loss of any support level can give us the signal to execute stops and conserve capital to enter lower prices if we get to see them. Source: FXStreet
  5. BTC/USD not able to break through key resistances now turns bearish. LTC/USD now trading close to major supports with an improved technical setup. We described a scenario of a bearish acceleration initiated during yesterday’s Asian session. That move, which was confirmed just minutes later, happened at the same time that a spike in the EUR/USD. We still can’t conclude there’s a direct relation between both events, but our currency analysts are working on it. Today we see the continuation of the bearish action as the most probable scenario, with the main Cryptocurrencies trading around congested areas, so sequences of quick movements should follow regular consolidation trading. The price projections point to next weekend as the potentially most volatile time coming up, as price action should approach key levels. BTC/USD 4H chart BTC/USD is trading around $10580, a congestion level where the price got stuck on several occasions during February. It doesn’t seem that such level will be the end of the current bearish movement, as we see price heading down to $10200, $9980 and $9500. MACD in the Bitcoin 4-hour chart is showing a perfect representation of what occured yesterday, with an opening that shows the bearish acceleration movement. The indicator is moving slightly below the 0 line and is proposing a bearish continuation for the upcoming periods. On the other hand, Directional Movement Index shows a clear edge for the sellers, that have not been able to separate themselves from the ADX line. That diminishes the potential for the bearish action. Buyers are still diminishing, following the general trend, but they react pretty quickly to any bullish attempt. LTC/USD 1H chart Litecoin continued the Bitcoin bearish movement, although with a straighter movement, avoiding any stops until the current level of $191.83. That’s just where another trendline has been touched, starting at the same lows of February 17th that the prior trendline that used to rule LTC price action. If the current support is lost, LTC/USD might quickly fall down to $169.7, an important level that precedes $144, the ultimate target for the bears. MACD in the Litecoin 1-hour chart has not decelerated as in the BTC case, as the bearish movement has been more lineal, with barely any volatility that opens up the indicator. Directional Movement Index is indeed showing here a pretty important increase in the sellers, together with a spike in the ADX. That is the confirmation of the trend strength, supporting continuity in the current action. XRP/USD 1H chart The Ripple chart is all over the place. XRP has a different outlook than the prior Cryptos, presenting a very inconclusive formation that reflects the confusion around the XRP/USD market. Ripple’s ability to capitalize on good news is seriously in doubt, as lots of the reports crossing the wires are potential applications for the Ripple’s platform technology but don’t impact the token. Actually, Ripple seems completely detached from Bitcoin or Litecoin’s price action and is just following another path. The technicals show indecision and doubts surrounding the asset, so it will be crucial to see once the next Crypto bullish leg is reached, XRP can join the party and get back on track. If not, bulls might be in serious trouble. MACD in the Ripple chart is still in positive territory, with the average and the signal laying above 0. That is positive for the asset, and we should track if Ripple might be the one giving the bullish signal eventually. Directional Movement Index shows as well a certain equilibrium, not without doubts, with a certain bearish trend. This is a setup that supports a less-bearish scenario than other Cryptocurrencies. Source: FXStreet
  6. XRP is unstoppable these days with nearly 40% in 24 hours time. Bitcoin is trying to break free from a narrow range. Other altcoins also demonstrate a strong poisitve momentum. XRP, the third largest cryptocurrency also often referred to as Ripple, gained as much as 40% in recent 24 hours amid growing optimism that banks and financial institutions within RippleNet will use it as a means of exchange along with Ripple's xRapid solution. XRP/USD is changing hands at $0.4530 at the time of writing; the coin's trading volumes nearly quadrupled in a day to $1.5B. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is in no hurry to follow Ripple's lead. The digital currency No. 1 has gained 2.3% on a daily basis to trade at $6,535 at the time of writing. The coin has been sitting in a narrow range capped by $6,500 for several days; thus a confirmed breakthrough might create a bullish impulse here. Ethereum has recovered to $222 by press time dragged higher by the general positive momentum of altcoins. ETH/USD is 6.6% higher on a daily basis, though the excitement may be fading away unless Ethereum gets fresh catalysts for a sustainable recovery. Stellar (XLM) and Cardano (ADA) are also starring today with over 15% growth on a day-to-day basis. EOS gained 9%, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash are 5.5% and 6.7% higher respectively. Source: FXSTreet
  7. Ethereum declined from the highs close to $300 only to find support marginally above $260. Technical indicators are sending bearish signals but the buyers must keep the price above 23.6% Fib to avoid declines back to $260. Ethereum price embarked on fresh declines yesterday break the major support at $270 (see analysis here). The bullish movement in Bitcoin (BTC) price to $6,800 had pulled most of the cryptos up with it including ETH/USD which came close to trading at $300. However, the plunge in the price of Bitcoin to $6,250 on the same time appears to have affected the second largest crypto by market capitalization. Ethereum tested the nest support target at $260 before revamping the trend to the upside. At present, the digital asset has cleared the resistance at the 23.6% Fib level with the last swing high of $295.85 and a low of $259.05 close to $268. The price has even stepped above the resistance at $272 but corrected lower on failure to overcome $276 resistance. The 38.2% Fib level is preventing movement to the upside at $273.09, while the trendline (bearish) will limit gains below the initial moving average resistance at $278.97 (50 SMA). The second moving average (100 SMA) resistance is at $285.31. The path of least resistance is to the south, besides the bearish trend is confirmed by the MACD ranging in the bearish zone. Ethereum is at risk of further breakdown, therefore, the buyers need to keep the price above the 23.6% support (former resistance). On the upside, trading above the trendline resistance could open the door for more gains towards $280. Source: ForexCrunch, FXStreet
  • Create New...